Market Update - APril #4
The RBA Just Moved to 4.10%. Here Is the Contrarian Case for Buying on the Lower North Shore Right Now.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 4.10 per cent in March. It was a split decision – five board members to four – against a backdrop of inflation running at 4.6 per cent annually and Middle East-driven fuel price pressures that have reset household budgets and vendor expectations alike.
Markets are now pricing a 70 per cent probability of a third hike at the RBA’s May 5 board meeting, with the Q1 CPI print – released in the final days of April – expected to be the deciding input. ANZ Research has gone further, forecasting the cash rate to peak at 4.35 per cent before any easing cycle begins.
For most buyers on Sydney’s Lower North Shore, the instinct in this environment is to wait. To let rates peak, let sentiment stabilise, let the picture clarify. It is a reasonable instinct. It is also, historically, an expensive one.
“This is the part of the cycle where buyers who are prepared to act decisively make the acquisitions that define their wealth for the next decade. The buyers who waited for clarity in 2012, in 2019, in 2020 – they paid more for the same properties when they eventually came back. The buyers who moved in the uncertainty got the price, the terms, and the asset.”
GERARD MAZAR
Director, Mazar Martin Buyers Advisory
The mechanism is straightforward. Rate hikes do two things simultaneously: they reduce the borrowing capacity of marginal buyers, and they recalibrate vendor expectations. The first effect reduces competition at auction. The second effect means vendors who are genuinely motivated to transact are doing so at prices that reflect current market reality rather than the peak sentiment of 2025.
The two confirmed hikes – February and March – have already added approximately $750 per month to repayments on a $1.5 million variable rate mortgage. If May delivers a third, that figure reaches $1,125. Either way, that is real cost pressure, and it shows in clearance rates. Sydney’s 60.8 per cent result is the softest of 2026. Four consecutive weeks of softening. The vendors who are still coming to market in this environment are not holding out for last year’s prices. They want to transact.
“What the rate hikes have done is separate the motivated vendors from the aspirational ones. The motivated vendors are in the room. They’re having honest conversations with their agents. Their reserve is realistic. Those are the properties we want our buyers in front of – and right now there are more of them than at any point in the past eighteen months.”
JEREMY MARTIN
Director, Mazar Martin Buyers Advisory – Buyers Agents, Lower North Shore
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“We’ve had clients tell us they want to wait until rates come down. But when rates come down, everyone comes back into the market at the same time. The competition intensifies. The negotiating leverage we have today disappears. Buying while rates are high but sentiment is low is uncomfortable – and it is usually right.”
CHELSEA WAEREA-HARGREAVES
Director, Mazar Martin Buyers Advisory – Buyers Agents, Lower North Shore
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The case for the Lower North Shore specifically is structural. Sydney as a whole is -0.04 per cent on Cotality’s daily index, and the Lower North Shore has tracked that softening – values here have eased in line with the broader market. But the fundamentals that underpin this corridor have not changed: genuinely constrained supply, sticky owner-occupier demand, and harbour proximity that cannot be replicated at any price point. Rate-sensitive investor markets soften and stay soft. Markets built on structural scarcity soften and recover. The Lower North Shore is the latter – and it is currently priced as though it were the former.
The May meeting outcome, whatever it is, will not fundamentally change the picture on the Lower North Shore. What it will change is how long this entry window stays open. Mazar Martin is buying in this market right now – and the results our clients are achieving reflect exactly what becomes possible when a structurally strong market softens and competition steps back.
Do you need a buyers agent on the Lower North Shore?
The Lower North Shore is one of Sydney’s most complex and competitive property markets. Here is an honest assessment of when a buyers agent adds the most value:
- You are buying in a suburb you do not know intimately – even experienced buyers underestimate Lower North Shore micro-market variation at the street level
- You are time-poor – the search process in this market demands consistent weekly presence and direct agent relationships
- You are buying at auction – auction strategy and bidding on the Lower North Shore requires specific preparation and in-market experience
- You are an expat or interstate buyer – purchasing without eyes on the ground in a prestige market is high-risk
- You want off-market access – without agent relationships, you will not see this stock
- You want to negotiate from strength – an independent buyers agent brings market intelligence and negotiating experience that private buyers rarely have access to
How much does a buyers agent cost on the Lower North Shore?
Buyers agent fees are structured as a fixed engagement fee, a success fee on purchase, or a combination. At Mazar Martin, we are transparent about our fee structure from the first call. For most clients, the saving achieved on purchase price – combined with the time, risk and stress removed from the process – means the fee pays for itself many times over.
Gerard Mazar
DIRECTOR · MAZAR MARTIN BUYERS ADVISORY
Gerard is a specialist buyers agent on Sydney’s Lower North Shore with deep expertise across Mosman, Neutral Bay, Cremorne, and the wider harbourside market including suburbs surrounding Willoughby to Chatswood. His buyers advisory work is built on long-standing agent relationships and intimate knowledge of the LNS micro-markets.
Jeremy Martin
DIRECTOR · MAZAR MARTIN BUYERS ADVISORY
Jeremy is a specialist buyers agent on Sydney’s Lower North Shore with deep expertise across Mosman to Cremorne, but also Lane Cove, Cammeray, Crows Nest. His buyers advisory work is built on rigorous daily market intelligence, long-standing agent relationships, and an instinct for identifying motivated sellers and off-market opportunities before they reach the public market.
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